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# Title: An Essay Concerning Humane Understanding (shelfmarks Leibn. Marg. 38; ZEN Leibn. Marg. 38)
# Folio 337, page id 778263916:0353
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derrees of Asse
manner, that re ich reason conclude to be the Ffects of cedd
and regilar Causes, chousl ther corme not richin the reach OF Our RnOW
ledse. Thus, That Firc warmed a Man, mado Lead Auic, and charsec
the colour or contistenei in Wood or Charcoal: that tron lunk in Warer-
and sram in Duicksilrer: These and the like Propositions about par-
ticular facts, beins agrecable to our constant Experience, ai otten as ve
have co do rith thele matters; and beins seneralsy spolee of, (Wrhen
mentioned bi ochers,) as thinos found constanely tobe lo, and cheretore
not (0 muchi as controverted by any body, ire are put palt doubt, thac a
relacion aftirmins any such chins to lave been, or ans predication that
it will happen again in the lame manner, is very true. Thele Probabili
ties rile (onear to Cerrainty, that they governi our Thouslues as absolutelr.
and induence all our Actions as tully, as the most evident demonstration;
and in Wrhat concerns us, e malce litele or no ditterence beturcen them
and cerrain knomlecee. And our Beliet thus grounded, riles 10 Af.
Surance.
8. 7. Seconcly. The next decree of Probability is, tien LEnd by my ovri
Experience, and the Aereement of all others that mention it, a thing t0
be, Tor themost part, (0; and that the particular instance ot it is atte-
Aed by many and undoubted Wicnesses: 2. 8. History sivins us such an ac.
count otMen in alI Ages; andmy oon Experience, a5 Par as I had an op:
porcunies to observe, contirmins it, thac most Men preter their private
Adrantase, to the publick. IF all Hictorians tliat vrite oC Ziberius, Cay that
Tiberius did (o, ic is extreamly probable. And in this cale, our ABenE
has a susticient foundarion to raise it selEto à desree, Which We mas call
Considence.
S. 8. Thiraly, In matrers thât happen indisterent1Y; a5 thata Bird Moula
Ay this or that ay; chat it Bould chunder on a Mans ristit or lese
ETand, (5c. When any particular matrer of fact comes attested by ihe con-
current Testimons ot unsuspected Witnesses, there our ANent is allo un-
aroidable. Thus: That chere is such a Cier in Tcalr, 25 Rome: That
about 2700rears a80; there lived in it a Mtan, called fulius Caesar ; FhaL
he ras a General, and that he on a Battel again anothier called Pomper.
This, choush inthie nature of the thing, there be nothine for, nor acainst
ic; vet beins related by Historians of credit, and contradicted by no ono
Writer, a Han cannot aroid belierine it, and can as little doube of it,
ashe does oFtheBeins and Actions ot his omr Acquaintance, Whereothe
himselF is 2 Witnels.
5. 9. Phus Par the matter soes cat enoush. Probability uxon sucH
grounds carries so much evidence with it, that it naturally determines
the Fudement, and leaves us as litele at liberey to beliere, or disbeliere,
2sa Demonstration does, Whether e ill knor, or beignorane. The
difticuley is, When Teltimonies contradict conimon Experience, and tho
report ol Eistorr and Witnesses clastres ith the ordinary course ot
Nature, or trith one another; there it is, Whrere Diligence, Atrention, and
Exactnels is required, to form a right sudoment, and to pproportion ehe
ANent to the ditterene Fvidence and Probability oF the thins; erhick
rises and falls, accordins as thole trro Foundations of Credibilitr, viz. Com-
mon Obserration in like cases, and particular Festimonies in that parti-
cular instance, favours or contradicts it. These are liable to (0 great va-
riety of contrary Observations, Circumstances, RepOrES, difterent Oualiti
cations, Tempers, Delions, Over-Sights, (5C. OF the ROPOrTErS, EaF Fis
impohible to reduceto precile Rules, the various degrees wherein Nen
sive cheis Asent. Zhis orty may be said in general, THat as che ArCu-
MEAES